I have a hypothesis that in 150 years, the problems facing the world will be very different than what we see today. Not because of a technological singularity, but simply because humans will have solved today’s hardest problems: poverty, war, crime, disease, climate change.
This should be fantastic news for folks worried about carbon emissions or running out of oil. After all, projecting that a thirty year trend will continue for another ten years seems pretty safe.
A while back, I argued in favor of a wait-and-see approach to Climate Change, a position that would be supported by this knowledge. It’s hard to know whether this projection is realistic, but equally hard to accurately project the effects of Climate Change.